Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 98 at 01:57 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–30%.

Safest bet that day AS 98 ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 208 ANC 17:02 → SEA 21:19 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 98 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 01:57	SEA 06:28	10%	2%	0.9%	88%
DL 922 Delta Flight history →	ANC 14:12	SEA 18:46	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 833 Delta	ANC 08:02	SEA 12:39	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1539 Alaska	ANC 01:36	SEA 05:57	12%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 1380 Alaska	ANC 00:19	SEA 04:40	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 532 Alaska	ANC 01:53	SEA 06:11	13%	2%	0.9%	no record
DL 925 Delta Flight history →	ANC 02:48	SEA 07:14	13%	2%	0.6%	90%
AS 440 Alaska	ANC 10:27	SEA 14:55	18%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 48 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 06:58	SEA 11:12	19%	3%	1.2%	88%
AS 1445 Alaska	ANC 09:12	SEA 13:25	19%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 595 Alaska	ANC 12:22	SEA 16:33	21%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 1682 Alaska	ANC 08:07	SEA 12:21	21%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 1417 Alaska	ANC 14:37	SEA 18:48	21%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 9827 Alaska	ANC 08:10	SEA 12:31	21%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 1657 Alaska	ANC 06:07	SEA 10:22	22%	4%	1.2%	no record
AS 597 Alaska	ANC 15:59	SEA 20:11	25%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 208 Alaska	ANC 17:02	SEA 21:19	30%	7%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON