Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 00:03, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ANC 00:03 → DEN 07:23UA 1959	3h 57m Denver	DEN 11:20 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	12h 01m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	2h 53m Seattle	SEA 21:39 → SFO 23:59DL 2635	8h 47m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	ANC 02:48 → SEA 07:14DL 925	2h 31m Seattle	SEA 09:45 → SFO 12:04DL 1412	8h 16m	97%	70%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	2h 25m Seattle	SEA 08:53 → SFO 11:09AS 528	8h 12m	99%	56%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:58 → SEA 11:12AS 48	2h 38m Seattle	SEA 13:50 → SFO 15:53AS 688	7h 55m	99%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON