Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	3h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → SLC 20:06DL 2607	12h 06m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	ANC 02:48 → SEA 07:14DL 925	2h 16m Seattle	SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016	7h 48m	97%	82%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon	59m Portland	PDX 10:44 → SLC 13:43AS 3355 · flown by SkyWest	6h 43m	86%	74%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:58 → SEA 11:12AS 48	3h 28m Seattle	SEA 14:40 → SLC 17:34AS 663	8h 36m	99%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON