Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 11:32, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3840 SkyWest	ASE 07:40	ATL 13:10	20%	10%	3.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ASE 08:42 → DEN 10:01UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest	3h 39m Denver	DEN 13:40 → ATL 18:44UA 1671	8h 02m	100%	72%
United Details →	ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Denver	DEN 15:54 → ATL 20:59UA 248	7h 27m	96%	71%
United Details →	ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest	1h 29m Denver	DEN 10:17 → ATL 15:23UA 2806	5h 53m	89%	69%
Delta Details →	ASE 12:03 → LAX 13:24DL 4133 · flown by SkyWest	1h 47m Los Angeles	LAX 15:11 → ATL 22:35DL 843	8h 32m	91%	66%
American Details →	ASE 07:38 → DFW 10:53AA 4898 · flown by SkyWest	2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:25 → ATL 16:43AA 2398	7h 05m	97%	62%
American Details →	ASE 07:08 → ORD 10:59AA 6386 · flown by SkyWest	2h 02m Chicago	ORD 13:01 → ATL 16:05AA 616	6h 57m	91%	56%
United Details →	ASE 13:18 → IAH 17:16UA 5702 · flown by SkyWest	54m Houston	IAH 18:10 → ATL 21:23UA 2240	6h 05m	77%	56%
United Details →	ASE 12:39 → ORD 16:45UA 5956 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Chicago	ORD 18:20 → ATL 21:40UA 1398	7h 01m	83%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON