tailodds FORECAST
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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 08:42, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Austin on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:42 → DEN 10:01UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest 3h 43m Denver DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270 7h 16m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest 3h 49m Denver DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943 7h 19m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → ASE 12:03 → LAX 13:24DL 4133 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Los Angeles LAX 16:00 → AUS 20:59DL 622 7h 56m 95% 71%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:18 → IAH 17:16UA 5702 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Houston IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621 7h 07m 94% 71%
UnitedDetails → ASE 09:47 → SFO 11:37UA 4657 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m San Francisco SFO 13:27 → AUS 19:09UA 1116 8h 22m 96% 70%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:12 → LAX 09:33UA 5851 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Los Angeles LAX 10:48 → AUS 15:50UA 1496 6h 38m 87% 67%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 54m Denver DEN 09:42 → AUS 13:02UA 1026 4h 32m 77% 64%
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:38 → DFW 10:53AA 4898 · flown by SkyWest 3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:38 → AUS 15:50AA 2103 7h 12m 100% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON