Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 5766 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 5766 ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5776 ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5766 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 07:30	DEN 08:48	19%	9%	5.0%	89%
OO 5589 SkyWest	ASE 14:19	DEN 15:35	21%	12%	3.3%	no record
UA 5772 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 11:32	DEN 12:45	23%	10%	3.8%	77%
UA 5770 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 09:26	DEN 10:46	24%	10%	4.0%	83%
UA 4647 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 08:42	DEN 10:01	25%	9%	4.2%	89%worse than usual
UA 5774 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 13:07	DEN 14:20	26%	12%	3.6%	76%
UA 5778 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 17:10	DEN 18:23	31%	13%	2.5%	73%
UA 5776 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 15:25	DEN 16:38	34%	15%	2.1%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON