Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 24–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4898 ASE 07:38 → DFW 10:53 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest OO 4887 ASE 13:01 → DFW 16:14 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4898 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 07:38	DFW 10:53	24%	13%	6.4%	69%
OO 4916 SkyWest	ASE 10:39	DFW 13:52	26%	16%	6.3%	no record
OO 4887 SkyWest	ASE 13:01	DFW 16:14	33%	18%	5.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON