tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 5702 at 13:18, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5702 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ASE 13:18 IAH 17:16 20% 14% 2.2% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:42 → DEN 10:01UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest 3h 29m Denver DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829 7h 22m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 6h 39m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest 3h 50m Denver DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419 7h 34m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Denver DEN 16:20 → IAH 19:57UA 588 7h 25m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:12 → LAX 09:33UA 5851 · flown by SkyWest 2h 18m Los Angeles LAX 11:51 → IAH 17:21UA 1477 8h 09m 94% 75%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest 3h 54m Denver DEN 18:14 → IAH 21:52UA 1055 7h 45m 96% 74%
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:38 → DFW 10:53AA 4898 · flown by SkyWest 3h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:32 → IAH 15:50AA 9748 7h 12m 100% 60%
UnitedDetails → ASE 17:10 → DEN 18:23UA 5778 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Denver DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475 4h 56m 76% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ASE 09:26 → DEN 10:46UA 5770 · flown by SkyWest 48m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 4h 43m 62% 49%
UnitedDetails → ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest 51m Denver DEN 17:29 → IAH 20:59UA 1587 4h 34m 57% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON