Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 21–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6386 ASE 07:08 → ORD 10:59 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest UA 5956 ASE 12:39 → ORD 16:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6386 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 07:08	ORD 10:59	21%	11%	6.3%	69%
OO 4631 SkyWest	ASE 08:09	ORD 11:55	24%	12%	5.2%	no record
UA 5956 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 12:39	ORD 16:45	28%	19%	6.1%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON