tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 4657 at 09:47, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 4657 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ASE 09:47 SFO 11:37 21% 18% 5.4% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:42 → DEN 10:01UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest 3h 24m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 7h 27m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → ASE 17:10 → DEN 18:23UA 5778 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Denver DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123 6h 46m 94% 72%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Denver DEN 11:20 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 6h 34m 95% 70%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:12 → LAX 09:33UA 5851 · flown by SkyWest 3h 51m Los Angeles LAX 13:24 → SFO 14:58UA 469 7h 46m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → ASE 19:15 → LAX 20:43UA 5940 · flown by SkyWest 1h 51m Los Angeles LAX 22:34 → SFO 00:04 +1UA 1047 5h 49m 91% 68%
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 6h 58m 95% 67%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest 3h 34m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 7h 33m 94% 63%
UnitedDetails → ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest 2h 56m Denver DEN 19:34 → SFO 21:20UA 1389 6h 55m 91% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON