Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 09:55, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 416 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	ANC 18:48	22%	5%	0.8%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960	4h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 14:18 → ANC 16:49DL 411	12h 05m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:07DL 2825	2h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	10h 29m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	2h 45m Seattle	SEA 17:35 → ANC 20:23DL 2367	11h 50m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:40 → SEA 09:54DL 444	3h 46m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928	12h 45m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	2h 15m Seattle	SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936	11h 13m	94%	70%
Alaska Details →	ATL 18:00 → PDX 20:24AS 783	1h 00m Portland	PDX 21:24 → ANC 00:32 +1AS 2192 · flown by Horizon	10h 32m	84%	69%
Alaska Details →	ATL 16:18 → SEA 18:46AS 218	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 22:01 → ANC 00:44 +1AS 1471	12h 26m	98%	66%
Alaska Details →	ATL 07:00 → SEA 09:26AS 377	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 11:45 → ANC 14:40AS 1333	11h 40m	96%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ATL 14:28 → SEA 16:43DL 481	52m Seattle	SEA 17:35 → ANC 20:23DL 2367	9h 55m	68%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON