Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 4011 at 09:45, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4011 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 09:45	ASE 11:22	20%	7%	0.8%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	3h 19m Los Angeles	LAX 14:04 → ASE 17:16DL 3704 · flown by SkyWest	10h 01m	99%	86%
United Details →	ATL 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 340	3h 34m Denver	DEN 13:40 → ASE 14:44UA 5771 · flown by SkyWest	7h 59m	99%	80%
United Details →	ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327	3h 54m Denver	DEN 16:22 → ASE 17:26UA 5697 · flown by SkyWest	8h 16m	98%	79%
United Details →	ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532	1h 35m Houston	IAH 09:50 → ASE 11:40UA 5814 · flown by SkyWest	6h 35m	95%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON