Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2945 at 21:16, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2945 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:16	ATW 22:31	15%	5%	1.3%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:28DL 1005	3h 41m Detroit	DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest	7h 09m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:00 → DTW 08:57DL 1646	1h 03m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → ATW 10:29DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	4h 29m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	3h 14m Detroit	DTW 16:10 → ATW 16:38DL 4166 · flown by SkyWest	6h 38m	99%	82%
American Details →	ATL 15:03 → DFW 16:29AA 3104	3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → ATW 22:41AA 4188 · flown by Envoy	8h 38m	95%	73%
United Details →	ATL 13:26 → ORD 14:31UA 745	3h 38m Chicago	ORD 18:09 → ATW 19:22UA 5987 · flown by SkyWest	6h 56m	96%	66%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	2h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 21:45 → ATW 22:58DL 4920 · flown by Endeavor	6h 20m	98%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON