Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 510 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 510 ATL 07:05 → AUS 08:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1170 ATL 19:55 → AUS 21:18 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 510 Southwest	ATL 07:05	AUS 08:33	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2976 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	AUS 09:27	12%	1%	0.6%	94%
DL 2011 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	AUS 12:25	14%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:30	AUS 13:51	15%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1397 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:15	AUS 15:50	15%	3%	0.6%	80%
WN 2114 Southwest	ATL 14:10	AUS 15:44	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1491 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:20	AUS 18:50	19%	4%	0.7%	76%
DL 1081 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:47	AUS 23:14	22%	5%	0.8%	60%
F9 4211 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:33	AUS 18:22	22%	10%	1.1%	67%
DL 1170 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:55	AUS 21:18	24%	7%	1.4%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON