Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1182 at 12:25 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 1182 ATL 12:25 → AVL 13:21 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2037 ATL 19:46 → AVL 20:52 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1182 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:25	AVL 13:21	13%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 3059 Delta	ATL 10:04	AVL 11:09	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 3116 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:30	AVL 22:32	20%	7%	1.1%	82%
DL 2037 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:46	AVL 20:52	23%	9%	1.1%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON