Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3100 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 3100 ATL 08:20 → BHM 08:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2034 ATL 22:39 → BHM 22:34 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3100 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:20	BHM 08:15	8%	2%	1.0%	93%
DL 1017 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:15	BHM 11:10	12%	2%	1.1%	91%
DL 3012 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:32	BHM 13:25	13%	3%	1.6%	88%
DL 3163 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:04	BHM 15:05	16%	5%	1.4%	77%
DL 2484 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:55	BHM 15:52	18%	4%	1.6%	81%
DL 3044 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:59	BHM 19:01	18%	5%	1.4%	86%
DL 3202 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:00	BHM 19:58	21%	8%	1.5%	74%
DL 2034 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:39	BHM 22:34	21%	6%	1.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON