Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3069 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 3069 ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 8913 ATL 19:09 → BNA 19:21 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3069 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:31	BNA 08:41	8%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 1155 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:57	BNA 10:09	10%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 1257 Southwest	ATL 11:10	BNA 11:28	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 2867 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:21	BNA 11:30	11%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 3159 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:54	BNA 14:03	14%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 3142 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:23	BNA 15:36	15%	4%	0.8%	75%
DL 3002 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:23	BNA 20:34	20%	8%	1.0%	76%
DL 3121 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:45	BNA 22:58	20%	7%	1.0%	80%
DL 1490 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:20	BNA 19:38	21%	9%	1.2%	73%
DL 8913 Delta	ATL 19:09	BNA 19:21	23%	9%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON