Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 11:56, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Boise on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 874 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:31	BOI 12:53	9%	2%	0.5%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 07:40 → SEA 09:54DL 444	2h 36m Seattle	SEA 12:30 → BOI 15:11DL 3959 · flown by SkyWest	9h 31m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	2h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 11:39 → BOI 13:44DL 2982	8h 19m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:17 → LAX 08:53DL 763	2h 51m Los Angeles	LAX 11:44 → BOI 14:46DL 3773 · flown by SkyWest	9h 29m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	3h 42m Los Angeles	LAX 19:59 → BOI 22:58DL 4148 · flown by SkyWest	10h 13m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	2h 37m Seattle	SEA 14:50 → BOI 17:24DL 4127 · flown by SkyWest	9h 34m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → BOI 16:13DL 2920	8h 03m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:28 → SEA 16:43DL 481	2h 57m Seattle	SEA 19:40 → BOI 22:18DL 3692 · flown by SkyWest	9h 50m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	1h 59m Seattle	SEA 16:49 → BOI 19:23DL 3688 · flown by SkyWest	8h 50m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ATL 07:00 → SEA 09:26AS 377	48m Seattle	SEA 10:14 → BOI 12:40AS 357	7h 40m	70%	51%
American Details →	ATL 08:22 → DFW 09:55AA 1567	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:41 → BOI 13:10AA 2019	6h 48m	59%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON