Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 987 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 987 ATL 07:05 → BOS 09:39 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 1396 ATL 17:31 → BOS 20:07 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 987 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:05	BOS 09:39	6%	1%	0.6%	90%
DL 2432 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	BOS 11:06	8%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 855 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:00	BOS 12:41	10%	2%	0.6%	87%
B6 1896 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 07:20	BOS 09:55	11%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 862 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	BOS 13:47	11%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 1293 Delta	ATL 12:18	BOS 14:57	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 865 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	BOS 01:20	16%	6%	0.9%	80%
DL 726 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:58	BOS 16:44	17%	4%	0.6%	69%
F9 3512 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:21	BOS 12:00	18%	5%	0.9%	75%
DL 821 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:15	BOS 21:00	19%	6%	0.8%	69%
DL 457 Delta	ATL 19:56	BOS 22:35	20%	8%	1.7%	no record
DL 2595 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	BOS 18:00	23%	7%	0.7%	66%
B6 1396 JetBlue	ATL 17:31	BOS 20:07	35%	18%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON