Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1384 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1384 ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 1408 ATL 10:52 → BUF 13:09 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1384 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:10	BUF 11:11	13%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 2266 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:10	BUF 16:13	19%	4%	0.9%	82%
DL 2334 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:35	BUF 23:42	22%	5%	1.1%	77%
F9 1408 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:52	BUF 13:09	26%	6%	1.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON