Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Frontier via Las Vegas, leaving 08:44, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 483 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:20	BUR 12:56	21%	3%	0.9%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	9h 02m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	3h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339	9h 28m	100%	80%
United Details →	ATL 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 340	1h 09m Denver	DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154	7h 03m	89%	74%
United Details →	ATL 06:30 → SFO 08:35UA 571	1h 48m San Francisco	SFO 10:23 → BUR 11:49UA 2115	8h 19m	98%	74%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:24 → BUR 11:49AA 1208	8h 48m	98%	73%
Alaska Details →	ATL 07:00 → SEA 09:26AS 377	3h 52m Seattle	SEA 13:18 → BUR 15:48AS 529	11h 48m	99%	69%
Frontier Details →	ATL 08:44 → LAS 09:59F9 4891	1h 12m Las Vegas	LAS 11:11 → BUR 12:34F9 4107	6h 50m	82%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON