Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4875 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 4875 ATL 07:50 → BWI 09:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2634 ATL 13:38 → BWI 15:34 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4875 Southwest	ATL 07:50	BWI 09:50	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1592 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:47	BWI 10:39	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2711 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:15	BWI 13:07	11%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 199 Southwest	ATL 13:10	BWI 15:10	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2510 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 07:35	BWI 09:55	11%	4%	1.1%	69%
DL 2799 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:59	BWI 15:49	13%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2928 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:50	BWI 19:45	17%	5%	0.7%	72%
DL 1267 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:50	BWI 17:45	17%	5%	0.7%	69%
WN 2384 Southwest	ATL 17:50	BWI 19:50	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 1257 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:30	BWI 21:26	19%	7%	2.2%	70%
F9 4428 Frontier	ATL 18:56	BWI 21:08	23%	11%	2.0%	no record
F9 2634 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 13:38	BWI 15:34	26%	9%	1.2%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON