Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 406 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:18	BZN 13:20	12%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 644 Delta	ATL 08:54	BZN 11:00	13%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	1h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → BZN 12:35DL 2946	7h 10m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	3h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:51 → BZN 17:14DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	9h 04m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:07DL 2825	2h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → BZN 19:44DL 2954	7h 13m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	3h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:45 → BZN 22:03DL 2046	8h 43m	100%	87%
United Details →	ATL 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 340	3h 24m Denver	DEN 13:30 → BZN 15:18UA 513	8h 33m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:40 → SEA 09:54DL 444	1h 56m Seattle	SEA 11:50 → BZN 14:45DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	9h 05m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:28 → SEA 16:43DL 481	3h 16m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest	10h 21m	99%	80%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:03 → BZN 11:18AA 952	7h 17m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653	49m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:45 → BZN 22:03DL 2046	6h 08m	70%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON