Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1590 ATL 10:14 → CAE 11:20 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2193 ATL 19:00 → CAE 20:07 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1590 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:14	CAE 11:20	10%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 2944 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:00	CAE 12:59	12%	3%	1.6%	88%
DL 8904 Delta	ATL 17:34	CAE 18:41	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 3029 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:39	CAE 23:43	17%	8%	0.9%	80%
DL 2193 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	CAE 20:07	19%	8%	1.0%	78%
DL 5091 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 10:05	CAE 11:14	7%	0%	0.0%	93%
DL 5001 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 20:10	CAE 21:19	40%	25%	3.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON