Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1737 ATL 10:36 → CHA 11:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1722 ATL 19:36 → CHA 20:33 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1737 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:36	CHA 11:30	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 3141 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:53	CHA 14:43	13%	5%	0.6%	86%
DL 1059 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:50	CHA 22:47	17%	9%	1.1%	68%
DL 1722 Delta	ATL 19:36	CHA 20:33	18%	10%	1.1%	no record
DL 5309 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 08:20	CHA 09:19	10%	2%	1.6%	90%
DL 5179 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 16:12	CHA 17:15	13%	6%	3.1%	87%
DL 5099 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 22:40	CHA 23:43	25%	8%	0.0%	75%
DL 4722 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 19:45	CHA 20:46	37%	19%	5.5%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON