Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3091 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 3091 ATL 08:20 → CHS 09:34 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1663 ATL 20:51 → CHS 22:07 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3091 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:20	CHS 09:34	10%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 3107 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:41	CHS 11:54	14%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 2179 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:31	CHS 13:43	14%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 1381 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:40	CHS 15:53	15%	4%	0.9%	84%
DL 2174 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:00	CHS 17:19	15%	4%	1.0%	82%
DL 3179 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:44	CHS 18:59	19%	5%	1.8%	76%
DL 2850 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:39	CHS 23:53	21%	8%	1.6%	82%
DL 1663 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:51	CHS 22:07	22%	8%	1.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON