Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1500 at 08:21 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 1500 ATL 08:21 → CLE 10:12 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2410 ATL 09:56 → CLE 11:49 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1500 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:21	CLE 10:12	10%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 775 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:49	CLE 13:35	13%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 2545 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	CLE 15:29	14%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2750 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:45	CLE 19:35	19%	5%	0.7%	76%
DL 1339 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:40	CLE 22:30	20%	6%	1.0%	78%
DL 651 Delta	ATL 22:02	CLE 23:56	21%	6%	0.9%	no record
DL 1320 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	CLE 00:49	23%	7%	0.9%	79%
F9 2410 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:56	CLE 11:49	23%	7%	0.9%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON