Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OH 5216 at 05:49 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day OH 5216 ATL 05:49 → CLT 07:09 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3031 ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5216 PSA	ATL 05:49	CLT 07:09	8%	3%	1.0%	no record
OH 5552 PSA	ATL 12:27	CLT 13:53	12%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 3190 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	CLT 11:26	12%	3%	0.5%	87%
AA 5063 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 08:18	CLT 09:50	12%	4%	0.9%	88%
OH 5207 PSA	ATL 10:22	CLT 11:51	13%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 2157 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:20	CLT 13:31	13%	3%	0.5%	84%
DL 3177 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:41	CLT 23:58	16%	6%	0.7%	84%
AA 5175 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 16:22	CLT 17:46	17%	7%	1.4%	67%
AA 5067 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 19:21	CLT 20:52	21%	11%	2.2%	72%
DL 3158 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:05	CLT 18:24	22%	6%	0.8%	70%
DL 2132 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:59	CLT 20:07	23%	7%	0.8%	72%
DL 3031 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	CLT 16:17	23%	7%	1.1%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON