Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1479 at 08:28 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1479 ATL 08:28 → CMH 10:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1545 ATL 19:54 → CMH 21:33 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1479 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:28	CMH 10:05	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1750 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:06	CMH 13:38	11%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 2892 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:21	CMH 15:58	12%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 2786 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:50	CMH 19:27	15%	5%	0.7%	74%
DL 1459 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:55	CMH 23:33	16%	6%	0.9%	80%
DL 1545 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	CMH 21:33	19%	7%	1.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON