Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3160 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 3160 ATL 09:10 → CVG 10:33 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 4771 ATL 10:16 → CVG 11:48 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3160 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:10	CVG 10:33	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 3169 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:49	CVG 15:12	11%	3%	0.5%	80%
DL 3149 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:15	CVG 12:38	11%	2%	0.5%	84%
DL 1008 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	CVG 16:41	12%	4%	0.6%	79%
DL 1858 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:34	CVG 19:03	13%	4%	0.7%	67%
DL 2395 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:11	CVG 00:39	13%	4%	0.7%	81%
DL 2248 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:31	CVG 21:59	14%	5%	0.9%	76%
F9 4771 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:16	CVG 11:48	21%	8%	0.9%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON