Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1399 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 1399 ATL 06:40 → DAL 08:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1104 ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1399 Southwest	ATL 06:40	DAL 08:00	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
DL 441 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	DAL 09:16	10%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 4620 Southwest	ATL 11:35	DAL 12:55	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 512 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:47	DAL 13:50	13%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 2780 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:44	DAL 17:54	18%	6%	1.2%	79%
WN 3781 Southwest	ATL 17:35	DAL 18:55	22%	7%	1.4%	no record
DL 1104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	DAL 22:25	27%	10%	6.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON