Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4669 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day YX 4669 ATL 07:46 → DCA 09:57 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 850 ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4669 Republic	ATL 07:46	DCA 09:57	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 926 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	DCA 09:16	7%	2%	0.7%	85%
YX 4576 Republic	ATL 16:07	DCA 18:15	10%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 2167 Southwest	ATL 10:50	DCA 12:44	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 380 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:40	DCA 11:27	11%	2%	0.7%	82%
DL 1798 Delta	ATL 11:00	DCA 12:52	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3881 Envoy	ATL 11:01	DCA 12:42	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 537 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:59	DCA 23:52	17%	5%	1.1%	70%
DL 360 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:09	DCA 14:56	18%	3%	0.7%	72%
WN 1358 Southwest	ATL 15:10	DCA 17:04	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 325 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:55	DCA 20:47	20%	5%	1.0%	60%
DL 832 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:55	DCA 19:48	20%	5%	0.8%	59%
DL 727 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:55	DCA 21:49	22%	7%	2.1%	57%
DL 850 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:35	DCA 17:30	22%	5%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON