Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 211 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 211 ATL 06:45 → DEN 07:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 988 ATL 17:25 → DEN 18:58 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 211 Southwest	ATL 06:45	DEN 07:52	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 340 United Flight history →	ATL 08:45	DEN 10:06	13%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1327 United Flight history →	ATL 11:10	DEN 12:28	14%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 957 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:55	DEN 14:00	14%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 346 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:44	DEN 09:53	15%	2%	0.6%	88%
F9 1449 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 07:40	DEN 09:03	16%	5%	0.9%	69%
DL 493 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:01	DEN 17:08	17%	4%	0.6%	79%
DL 530 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:55	DEN 14:58	18%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 519 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:43	DEN 17:56	18%	4%	0.6%	69%
UA 609 United	ATL 16:32	DEN 18:00	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 746 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:25	DEN 20:43	22%	5%	1.3%	70%
F9 3599 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:53	DEN 22:28	24%	10%	1.5%	64%
WN 988 Southwest	ATL 17:25	DEN 18:58	28%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON