Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2770 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2770 ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 3161 ATL 20:13 → DFW 21:35 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2770 American Flight history →	ATL 06:01	DFW 07:33	9%	3%	1.1%	91%
DL 961 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:50	DFW 10:08	14%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 1567 American Flight history →	ATL 08:22	DFW 09:55	17%	5%	1.0%	87%
DL 414 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:21	DFW 12:37	18%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 1276 American Flight history →	ATL 12:39	DFW 14:02	21%	8%	0.9%	83%
F9 1269 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:42	DFW 12:25	23%	11%	1.0%	64%
DL 374 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:13	DFW 17:32	24%	8%	1.0%	72%
DL 1827 Delta	ATL 17:37	DFW 18:57	26%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 3104 American Flight history →	ATL 15:03	DFW 16:29	28%	9%	1.5%	78%
DL 818 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	DFW 23:59	29%	11%	2.4%	80%
AA 2398 American	ATL 17:31	DFW 19:00	31%	11%	2.7%	no record
F9 3097 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:14	DFW 18:39	33%	16%	2.4%	50%
DL 3161 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:13	DFW 21:35	34%	17%	8.1%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON