Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1646 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1646 ATL 07:00 → DTW 08:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1264 ATL 22:35 → DTW 00:40 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1646 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:00	DTW 08:57	7%	1%	0.4%	92%
DL 643 Delta	ATL 08:26	DTW 10:24	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 8861 Delta	ATL 09:45	DTW 11:40	13%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 1240 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	DTW 12:56	14%	2%	0.4%	85%
DL 1298 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:20	DTW 11:10	15%	2%	0.4%	87%
DL 1031 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:10	DTW 16:06	15%	4%	0.5%	85%
DL 2067 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:11	DTW 19:14	16%	5%	0.5%	76%
DL 1005 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:28	DTW 17:28	17%	4%	0.5%	79%
DL 2940 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	DTW 00:58	18%	7%	0.6%	73%
DL 1478 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:25	DTW 21:26	19%	7%	1.0%	76%
DL 1232 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:30	DTW 22:31	19%	7%	0.7%	68%
F9 2898 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 11:40	DTW 13:44	20%	7%	0.8%	65%
F9 1264 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 22:35	DTW 00:40	26%	14%	1.4%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON