Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3048 ATL 08:20 → ECP 08:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 3131 ATL 22:51 → ECP 22:58 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3048 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:20	ECP 08:27	7%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 3045 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:41	ECP 10:48	10%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2823 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:27	ECP 12:40	10%	3%	0.7%	76%
DL 3053 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:58	ECP 19:12	13%	6%	1.8%	76%
DL 3094 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:55	ECP 16:06	15%	5%	1.9%	80%
DL 3131 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:51	ECP 22:58	16%	7%	1.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON