Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1002 at 12:15 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1002 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:15	ELP 13:20	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 1713 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:39	ELP 20:50	25%	6%	2.4%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ATL 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 340	1h 30m Denver	DEN 11:36 → ELP 13:31UA 2128	6h 46m	94%	78%
United Details →	ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532	3h 55m Houston	IAH 12:10 → ELP 13:15UA 4361 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 10m	98%	76%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:51 → ELP 11:39AA 1658	7h 38m	99%	70%
American Details →	ATL 16:54 → ORD 18:09AA 616	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 21:19 → ELP 23:37AA 3948 · flown by Envoy	8h 43m	92%	65%
American Details →	ATL 08:22 → DFW 09:55AA 1567	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:42 → ELP 13:34AA 2953	7h 12m	96%	64%
American Details →	ATL 12:39 → DFW 14:02AA 1276	2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:06 → ELP 16:58AA 2097	6h 19m	89%	49%
American Details →	ATL 15:03 → DFW 16:29AA 3104	1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:09 → ELP 19:00AA 555	5h 57m	87%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON