Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 299 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 299 ATL 06:07 → EWR 08:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2340 ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 299 United Flight history →	ATL 06:07	EWR 08:25	5%	2%	1.2%	91%
DL 2397 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:12	EWR 10:26	9%	3%	1.0%	87%
YX 3404 Republic	ATL 10:58	EWR 13:38	12%	4%	1.5%	no record
DL 2401 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	EWR 12:21	13%	4%	1.1%	86%
F9 2282 Frontier	ATL 08:15	EWR 10:34	15%	6%	2.1%	no record
YX 3409 Republic	ATL 20:07	EWR 22:38	18%	7%	2.1%	no record
DL 2312 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:02	EWR 14:16	20%	6%	1.1%	72%
DL 2322 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:10	EWR 15:24	24%	8%	0.9%	76%
DL 2527 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:35	EWR 23:46	26%	10%	1.4%	65%
UA 2247 United Flight history →	ATL 18:19	EWR 20:36	26%	10%	1.4%	63%
DL 2498 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:35	EWR 20:54	28%	10%	1.4%	56%
F9 1158 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 19:04	EWR 21:28	33%	19%	4.6%	66%
DL 2340 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:33	EWR 17:54	33%	14%	1.2%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON