Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1281 ATL 08:55 → EYW 10:50 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2168 ATL 15:28 → EYW 17:25 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1281 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	EYW 10:50	14%	2%	3.2%	90%
DL 2815 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:53	EYW 19:51	17%	4%	1.9%	77%
DL 1472 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:01	EYW 13:00	19%	3%	5.2%	87%
DL 2168 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:28	EYW 17:25	20%	4%	3.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON