Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1094 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–44%.

Safest bet that day DL 1094 ATL 08:05 → FLL 09:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 1697 ATL 21:40 → FLL 23:35 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1094 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	FLL 09:59	16%	3%	1.5%	88%
F9 2172 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:35	FLL 08:33	18%	5%	2.8%	76%
DL 1512 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	FLL 12:23	21%	5%	4.8%	82%
B6 1797 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 07:00	FLL 08:52	21%	6%	2.1%	88%
DL 1271 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:06	FLL 11:03	22%	3%	1.4%	85%
DL 2063 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:25	FLL 13:20	22%	4%	4.7%	78%
DL 1341 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:31	FLL 14:27	24%	6%	1.2%	74%
DL 1413 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:59	FLL 15:55	27%	6%	1.1%	73%
DL 1295 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:39	FLL 18:40	27%	8%	1.9%	70%
DL 1229 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:45	FLL 00:39	28%	7%	1.2%	69%
DL 1670 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:45	FLL 19:43	29%	8%	1.6%	63%
DL 1489 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:58	FLL 21:56	29%	11%	1.6%	67%
F9 1124 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 12:44	FLL 14:50	29%	10%	1.8%	63%
DL 2345 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:28	FLL 17:26	33%	10%	1.2%	68%
F9 2174 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 22:48	FLL 00:44	39%	17%	3.7%	60%
B6 2097 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 12:49	FLL 14:40	40%	13%	1.6%	71%worse than usual
B6 1697 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 21:40	FLL 23:35	44%	21%	3.0%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON