Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2615 at 18:16, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2615 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:16	FSD 19:56	13%	5%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sioux Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sioux Falls is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	2h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 21:50 → FSD 22:52DL 1694	6h 14m	98%	87%
United Details →	ATL 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 340	3h 34m Denver	DEN 13:40 → FSD 16:23UA 5378 · flown by SkyWest	8h 38m	99%	84%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:02 → FSD 12:27AA 2872	7h 26m	98%	73%
American Details →	ATL 12:39 → DFW 14:02AA 1276	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:16 → FSD 17:30AA 3820 · flown by Envoy	5h 51m	81%	67%
American Details →	ATL 15:03 → DFW 16:29AA 3104	3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:49 → FSD 21:58AA 2937	7h 55m	93%	53%
United Details →	ATL 13:26 → ORD 14:31UA 745	1h 29m Chicago	ORD 16:00 → FSD 17:53UA 4404 · flown by GoJet	5h 27m	84%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON