Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:15, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Spokane on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 814 Delta	ATL 09:42	GEG 11:40	12%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Spokane is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	3h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 12:19 → GEG 13:21DL 2437	8h 56m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	3h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503	8h 58m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	3h 12m Los Angeles	LAX 13:00 → GEG 15:35DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest	10h 20m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	3h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:10 → GEG 21:52DL 1466	9h 32m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:07DL 2825	2h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 18:15 → GEG 19:25DL 2418	7h 54m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500	1h 55m Los Angeles	LAX 21:25 → GEG 00:02 +1DL 3576 · flown by SkyWest	9h 04m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	2h 22m Seattle	SEA 14:35 → GEG 15:47DL 4145 · flown by SkyWest	8h 57m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452	6h 57m	94%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	48m Seattle	SEA 19:53 → GEG 21:02DL 1752	7h 17m	69%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON