Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3173 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 3173 ATL 08:10 → GSO 09:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 1617 ATL 20:59 → GSO 22:20 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3173 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	GSO 09:27	6%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 3060 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:50	GSO 14:13	10%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 2539 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:15	GSO 15:30	11%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 3050 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:46	GSO 18:06	14%	4%	0.7%	69%
DL 3005 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	GSO 23:59	19%	5%	0.9%	85%
DL 1617 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:59	GSO 22:20	20%	5%	1.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON