Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2158 at 09:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2158 ATL 09:15 → GSP 10:18 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 3136 ATL 19:42 → GSP 20:43 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2158 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:15	GSP 10:18	9%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 1725 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:20	GSP 12:18	9%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 3010 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:59	GSP 15:01	12%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 3095 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:52	GSP 17:53	14%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 2281 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	GSP 23:54	18%	7%	0.8%	81%
DL 3136 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:42	GSP 20:43	20%	7%	0.8%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON