tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:25, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 837 Delta Flight history → ATL 09:50 HNL 13:20 15% 4% 0.5% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 12h 18m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 2h 20m Los Angeles LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443 12h 37m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 13h 28m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → ATL 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 340 1h 54m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 12h 28m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 12h 04m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → ATL 07:25 → DTW 09:25DL 1646 1h 05m Detroit DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307 12h 42m 95% 76%
AmericanDetails → ATL 07:48 → PHX 09:00AA 1777 1h 45m Phoenix PHX 10:45 → HNL 14:38AA 693 12h 50m 93% 75%
UnitedDetails → ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327 3h 32m Denver DEN 16:00 → HNL 19:13UA 1805 14h 03m 98% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ATL 08:54 → SEA 11:20AS 348 49m Seattle SEA 12:09 → HNL 15:04AS 899 12h 10m 57% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON