Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 222 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21%.

Safest bet that day WN 222 ATL 06:26 → HOU 07:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2051 ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 222 Southwest	ATL 06:26	HOU 07:36	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 1509 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	HOU 09:34	13%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 175 Southwest	ATL 12:50	HOU 14:07	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2381 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:12	HOU 16:22	20%	5%	0.7%	81%
WN 223 Southwest	ATL 17:55	HOU 19:12	21%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 2051 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:45	HOU 21:51	21%	7%	1.4%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON