Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5435 ATL 12:00 → HPN 14:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest DL 1616 ATL 19:59 → HPN 22:25 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5435 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 12:00	HPN 14:40	13%	5%	0.9%	73%
DL 2973 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:36	HPN 12:04	16%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 5013 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 15:34	HPN 18:11	18%	7%	1.2%	73%
DL 1616 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:59	HPN 22:25	19%	8%	1.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON