Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2182 ATL 11:28 → HSV 11:32 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 3022 ATL 22:34 → HSV 22:33 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2182 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:28	HSV 11:32	10%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 3026 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:57	HSV 16:02	11%	4%	1.0%	83%
DL 3171 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:10	HSV 18:10	14%	5%	1.7%	79%
DL 3022 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:34	HSV 22:33	16%	8%	1.4%	87%
DL 4762 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 13:21	HSV 13:23	27%	11%	0.0%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON