Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1159 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 1159 ATL 05:30 → IAD 07:24 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4410 ATL 14:46 → IAD 16:34 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1159 United	ATL 05:30	IAD 07:24	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1324 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	IAD 10:00	7%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 2135 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:27	IAD 14:26	8%	3%	0.7%	85%
UA 632 United Flight history →	ATL 09:52	IAD 11:36	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 1831 United Flight history →	ATL 14:41	IAD 16:35	14%	6%	0.6%	78%
DL 1309 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:31	IAD 20:23	16%	6%	0.9%	76%
DL 1695 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:26	IAD 17:14	16%	5%	0.8%	78%
DL 2549 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:53	IAD 00:41	18%	7%	0.9%	75%
F9 4410 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 14:46	IAD 16:34	24%	11%	1.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON