Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 13–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 532 ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 4075 ATL 21:25 → IAH 22:39 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 532 United Flight history →	ATL 07:05	IAH 08:15	13%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 1585 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:32	IAH 08:37	15%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 1682 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:02	IAH 11:11	16%	3%	0.6%	83%
F9 1403 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:07	IAH 07:20	16%	5%	0.9%	76%
DL 1572 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:27	IAH 13:33	16%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 2327 Delta	ATL 18:53	IAH 20:04	17%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 1223 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:26	IAH 16:39	19%	6%	0.7%	68%
DL 1601 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:48	IAH 23:57	19%	7%	1.1%	76%
F9 4075 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:25	IAH 22:39	23%	11%	3.0%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON